Coach 4th-down decision quality

Every 4th-down decision in the NFL since 2018, scored against a win-probability model. Coaches ranked by total WP lost to the analytically optimal choice. Bars show 90% bootstrap confidence intervals across each coach's 4th-down sample.

27,452 scored plays · 70 coaches · WP model log-loss 0.465 (nflfastR: 0.463)